Welcome to the May edition of The Monitor.
Who could’ve predicted that prediction markets would become one of the biggest themes of 2026? What began as conversations around growing retail participation and markets reacting quickly to major events is now evolving into broader discussions around operational readiness, oversight frameworks, and monitoring increasingly active prediction markets.
We continue to expand our trade surveillance coverage as these markets evolve. We just announced a strategic partnership with Crypto.com’s OG Prediction Markets, a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse, to integrate prediction market data into the Surveyor platform. We also launched our Prior Knowledge Signal, a new alert designed to flag abnormally large order sizes that may suggest trading on material non-public information.
And it’s not just us saying it – we’re honored to have been recognized by A-Team Insight with the 2026 award for Most Innovative Trade Surveillance Solution, reflecting the innovation and collaboration helping shape where the market is heading next.
In this month’s Monitor, we share what we’re watching most closely across prediction markets, regulatory developments, surveillance innovation, and market integrity. We hope this issue helps you navigate what’s ahead.
— Lisa Balter Saacks
President, Trillium Surveyor
Surveyor Product Perspective
Trillium Surveyor and Crypto.com Expand Surveillance Readiness for Prediction Markets
Hot off the press: We’ve partnered with Crypto.com’s OG Prediction Markets, a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse, to integrate leading prediction market data into the Surveyor platform.
As firms increasingly explore prediction markets, the need for scalable oversight continues to grow. As an early mover in the space, Surveyor continues expanding coverage and surveillance capabilities to help clients keep pace with rapidly evolving market structure, participation, and oversight expectations.
Read the full announcement here.
Introducing the Prior Knowledge Signal
Surveyor is also introducing a new Prior Knowledge Signal designed to flag designed to flag unusual order activity that may indicate the use of non-public information ahead of significant event outcomes.
As information timing becomes a larger focus in event-driven markets, firms are looking for more contextual monitoring and explainable workflows that help identify suspicious behavior earlier and support stronger oversight processes.
Prediction markets are moving fast. Oversight needs to move faster.
Regulatory Radar
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CFTC Pushes Further Into Prediction Markets: The CFTC continues reinforcing its authority over prediction markets, including recent legal action against states attempting to apply gaming laws to federally regulated event contracts. Chairman Michael Selig has also emphasized that prediction markets should be treated as financial instruments, not sports betting. (Source: CFTC)
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SEC-CFTC Harmonization Picks Up Speed: The SEC and CFTC recently signed a formal Memorandum of Understanding focused on coordination across market oversight, surveillance, innovation, and reporting requirements. Regulators continue signaling stronger alignment across crypto, prediction markets, and derivatives oversight. (Source: SEC)
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First Insider Trading Enforcement in Prediction Markets: On April 23, 2026, the CFTC filed its first insider trading enforcement action tied to event contracts regarding an active-duty service member in the U.S. Army who allegedly used classified nonpublic information to trade on U.S. operations to capture the former Venezuelan President through “Operation Absolute Resolve.” (Source: SEC)
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Rule 605 Modernization Is Getting Closer: As firms prepare for expanded Rule 605 reporting requirements, many teams are reassessing execution quality review, routing oversight, and supervisory workflows. More firms are looking for more timely insights rather than relying solely on periodic review cycles. (Source: SEC)
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SEC Delays Tokenized Stock Exemption: The SEC delayed a proposed exemption tied to tokenized equities as regulators continue evaluating questions around shareholder rights, ownership records, proxy voting, and third-party tokenized shares issued without direct issuer involvement. (SEC)
Introducing: Ask Surveyor
Ask Surveyor is our new AMA (Ask Me Anything) series answering the questions we’re hearing from the market and across conversations with our community. We’re kicking off the series with perspectives from Rob Cope, our expert on prediction markets, on where the market is heading and what firms should be thinking about now.
First topic: Prediction Markets.
Q: What surprised you most about the growth of prediction markets?
A: It is interesting that Event Contracts (the backbone of prediction markets) have been part of the CFTC repertoire since the early 1990’s, so they have been around for decades. That being said, the growth for the past 18 months has been astounding, and I see this parabolic growth continuing.
A lot of that acceleration came out of the post-Covid retail trading boom. Add to that, the new employment dynamic – I just don’t see this growth on retail side abating. Institutional is another story.
– Rob Cope, Director of Markets & Operations Strategy
What should we answer next? Reply directly with your #AskSurveyor questions.
Market Structure and Compliance Trends
The “Eddie Murphy Rule” Meets Prediction Markets
Conversations around ‘insider trading’ in prediction markets can quickly become caught up in semantics. Even regulators often define these concepts differently depending on the market structure involved.
Regardless of terminology, firms are increasingly focused on the same underlying issue: how information timing influences trading activity in markets tied to specific events and outcomes.
Unlike traditional markets, prediction markets can react sharply to breaking developments, geopolitical events, sporting outcomes, policy announcements, and other headline-driven catalysts. That creates new considerations around when information becomes widely known, how trading activity concentrates around certain outcomes, and what patterns may warrant closer supervisory review.
That focus is also starting to show up more clearly from regulators. As referenced above in our Regulatory Radar, the CFTC recently brought its first insider trading-related enforcement action tied to prediction markets under Section 4c(a)(4) of the Commodity Exchange Act, better known in some circles as the “Eddie Murphy Rule,” a nickname inspired by the movie Trading Places.
From the Surveyor perspective, this is one of the reasons capabilities like our new Prior Knowledge Signal became important to build as these markets continue evolving. Firms are looking for more contextual monitoring, explainable workflows, and oversight technology that can scale alongside increasingly active event-driven trading environments.
Rule 605 Updates Continue to Shape Best Execution Conversations
As firms prepare for expanded Rule 605 reporting requirements, many teams are thinking more closely about how execution quality will be measured and reviewed across the industry.
The earlier implementation extension already highlighted how much operational and market structure complexity is involved. For many firms, the conversation is now extending beyond reporting timelines into broader questions around data consistency, routing analysis, and how future market structure changes like tick size and access fee proposals could influence execution review.
From the Surveyor perspective, this is reinforcing the importance of clean, normalized trade data and more scalable best execution review workflows as reporting expectations evolve.
Poll
Markets are evolving quickly, and event-driven trading environments bring new oversight considerations.
What’s the biggest oversight challenge in prediction markets today?
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Information timing
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Surveillance coverage
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Market manipulation risk
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Governance and escalation
Participate in the poll here.
Social Calendar
Awards
A-Team Insight Innovation Awards 2026
We were honored to receive the A-Team Insight Innovation Award for Most Innovative Trade Surveillance Solution. We’re grateful for the continued collaboration with our clients and community as markets continue evolving.
Events
NSCP Labs
We were proud to sponsor NSCP Interactive Labs and appreciated the many conversations around supervisory controls, execution quality review, and balancing oversight with client data sensitivity. The discussions reinforced how much focus firms are placing on practical, explainable compliance workflows.
FINRA Annual Conference
Our team also attended the FINRA Annual Conference, where many conversations centered around evolving surveillance expectations, operational resilience, and the growing complexity of modern markets.
Didn’t get a chance to meet the Surveyor team in person? We’d be happy to connect at an upcoming event or schedule time virtually. Reply directly to this newsletter or contact us here.
Let’s Connect!
Let’s discuss how your team can stay ready as markets evolve and oversight expectations grow. Set up a brief time to chat here.