Here are a few market themes we are hearing as conversations build around STAC. We hope it serves as a useful companion as you move through the sessions and after.
1. ETFs are getting more complex
Market context
ETF growth today is less about overall trading volume and more about structure. New products, leverage, and crypto-linked exposure are increasing variation in liquidity, pricing behavior, and execution outcomes across ETFs that may appear similar on the surface. As a result, firms are spending more time understanding how product design and market conditions influence trading outcomes rather than assuming uniform behavior across the ETF universe.
Why it matters
- Similar products can behave very differently across market conditions
- Comparing outcomes over time requires more context than product labels alone
Relevant read
2. Tokenization and crypto markets are maturing
Market context
Tokenization and crypto markets are moving toward more institutional infrastructure. Real-world assets on blockchain rails are attracting traditional market participants, while regulatory clarity and system integration remain key to scaling. Always-on markets and 24/7 liquidity are beginning to shape how capital moves across asset classes.
Why it matters
- Market structure decisions made for traditional hours may not translate cleanly to continuous markets
- Firms will need clearer frameworks to assess outcomes and risk as crypto and tokenized activity scales
Relevant Read
- Finance Magnates – Tokenized stocks hit a record $1.2B while regulators flag risks
3. Prediction markets are moving into the spotlight
Market context
Prediction markets are seeing broader participation as interest grows around event-driven trading. Firms such as DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase are entering the space alongside venues like Kalshi. This expansion is increasing product availability while directing greater attention to insider trading risk, data handling practices, and the supervisory questions that matter most for compliance and market integrity.
Why it matters
- Insider trading worries are pushing market monitoring and supervision to the front of strategy conversations
- Event-based products concentrate activity around defined outcomes, creating distinct behavior and risk profiles
- As participation grows, trading firms will need clearer approaches to evaluating outcomes and managing exposure across events
Relevant read
- The Block – Insider Trading in Prediction Markets
4. Low-priced securities are back in focus
Market context
Low-priced securities continue to attract attention as trading activity remains elevated across certain names and venues. Increased retail participation, rapid price movements, and the expansion of extended trading hours are changing how and when liquidity forms in these securities.
Why it matters
- Price behavior in low-priced names can diverge quickly from broader market trends
- Extended trading hours add complexity to how activity and outcomes are assessed over time
Relevant read
5. Retail influence and market behavior
Market context
Retail participation continues to influence trading activity, product demand, and market dynamics. Greater access to complex instruments, including thematic ETFs, crypto-linked products, and event-driven contracts is changing how risk is expressed across markets and where liquidity concentrates.
Why it matters
- Retail-driven activity can amplify volatility and shift liquidity patterns in less predictable ways
- Firms are paying closer attention to how retail behavior influences outcomes across products and market conditions
Relevant read
- The Daily Upside – ETFs may be blurring the line between gambling and investing
Thanks for reading. If you’d like to explore more perspectives on market structure, trade surveillance, and best execution, you can find additional insights at trilliumsurveyor.com.
